As I look at the Accuweather monthly forecast, it look like this year’s maple season won’t begin until the first week in March. It so happens that’s the old norm. Since I began doing maple in 2003 the seasons usually started from the last week in Feb thru the middle of March. There were two major exceptions, 2023 and 2024, when the season started in mid to late Jan.
Prior to that my other extreme was a first boil on March 28 one season, the rest of the years had first boils from Feb 27-March 14.
When it starts, if the Accuweather extended forecast is fairly accurate, the season should be very good. Because we have had lots of cold temperatures this winter the frost is quite deep. As warm temperatures start about Feb. 28 with a 40F forecast, it will take a few days to thaw the frozen trees. Based on the extended forecast my guess is that first boil will be about March 2 or 3 and by March I should have some syrup made and ready to pack. Time will tell.
Prior to Feb 28 to March 1, the forecast shows no strings of 2 or more days above freezing. A single warm day can’t thaw the trees enough to get the sap flowing. As hard as the trees are frozen it will likely take 3 or 4 warm days to get much sap flowing.
This is of course only going to happen if the Accuweather extended forecast is close. Thus far I haven’t found any forecast that gives a daily forecast for more that 2 weeks out. The Farmers Almanac gives trends but not daily forecasts. Since 2003 I’ve found Accuweather to be fairly close to accurate, it has served me well.